Chavez: Playing a Dangerous Game Without Trumps

Chavez calls on Venezuela’s military leadership to prepare for war with Colombia


Whenever I read about the latest news produced in very regular intervals by Venezuela’s President, Hugo Chavez, somehow there is always an aftertaste of an era that I hoped to be long gone. Not in terms of events but, rather, of mindset and course of action – in simple terms, a political die-hard is at work that plays too inconsiderate with the fate of a continent and of his own people. Chavez’ recent announcement to his Army, calling for an increased preparedness for war with its neighbour Colombia and – what is even worse – for a war that might spread over the entire continent is more than just the usual sabre rattling. It is an irresponsible culmination of a process that has since long left the political level and has become an unbearable personal crusade of a man that misleadingly sees his historical legitimacy and tradition in Simón Bolívar – the latter, ironically enough, a man which had great admiration for the political foundation of the United States.

The growing alliance of socialist-led South American countries, as well as Venezuela’s latest military equipment deals with Russia, provided Chavez with increased confidence. His further support of countries with controversial governments (such as Cuba and Iran) that seem to parallel the international position of Venezuela, aims at emphasising that Chavez will not accept any meddling of third parties (foreign as well as national) into internal issues of his country – although many of these issues influence the regional international economy, political stability and welfare of the people.

There is no question that a strong, stable and modern Venezuela is not only the inherent right of the nation but also a prerequisite for a prosperous development of the north of the continent. Many steps in the external and internal affairs of Venezuela – some being a true thorn in the side of Colombia and the United States – follow a liberal approach, particularly in the field of international economics. However, any confrontation that might lead to an all-out war, whichever side it may originate from, cannot be in the interest of Venezuela or Colombia.

During the past months the rhetoric upward spiral on both sides has particularly increased with the issue of the establishing of US military bases in Colombia that are reportedly required for the fight against drug-traffic, originating from the troubled South American country, as well as to support Colombian forces in their struggle against the FARC. In early November, the Venezuelan Foreign Minister, Nicolas Maduro, blasted the new military cooperation agreement between Colombia and the US and called it “a shame for the history” of the continent. However, these protests are ridiculous considering the actual extent of this 10-year deal: a total of 800 military personnel and 600 civilian contractors will be deployed at seven military bases in Colombia.

Calling this military presence a “serious threat to stability in the region” either proves poor judgement or the attempt to further agitate the already troubled water. This general assessment of a threat to the stability is even substantiated by Maduro’s further statement that “there is no guarantee that the Colombian territory could not be used against other countries in the region”.

Exceeding the rhetoric exchange of blows, President Hugo Chavez sent 15,000 troops to the volatile border between Venezuela and Colombia, claiming that the US planned to use Colombian bases to mount an invasion of his oil-rich nation. As a result of Chavez’ statements, Colombian President Alvaro Uribe considered to appeal to the UN and the Organization of American States (OAS).

Rather than the stationing of a few US soldiers on Colombian soil, the greater source for the destabilisation of the region has been the shopping tour of the Venezuelan administration amounting to $3 billion in arms purchases from Russia. Allegedly, the procurement push of September 2009 is to improve the country’s ability to defend itself against an invasion. This comprises the establishing of a multi-layered air defence network consisting of Russian-made S-300, Buk-M2 and Pechora air defence systems, financed by a Russian $2.2 billion loan. Furthermore, the deal includes the purchase of 92 T-72 main battle tanks and an undisclosed number of Smerch multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS). The tanks will replace the 80 outdated French-built AMX-30 main battle tanks and several dozen AMX-13C light tanks. In late 2008, Venezuela has also received 24 Su-30MK fighter aircraft which by far outclass the current inventory of the Colombian Air Force. Between 2005 and 2007, Moscow and Caracas signed twelve contracts worth more than $4.4 billion to supply arms to Venezuela, including the Sukhoi jets, helicopters and Kalashnikov assault rifles.

Nevertheless, Venezuela did not receive the state-of-the-art weapon systems of the last deal, so far, and the integration as well as the training of the troops will still require some years before the Venezuelan Armed Forces are in the position to use them successfully in combat, be it in a defensive or offensive way. Therefore, we may prepare for further sabre rattling and a rhetoric slugfest for the time being. A war between the two countries, blessedly, is not in sight yet. But the current development is not very healthy for the political, economic and social situation in the north of the continent.

If ever a war with an allied US-Colombian adversary should come to pass, Chavez will have a hard time to find his “battle of Carabobo”. Once more in modern politics it can only be hoped that the involved parties may learn from history and may begin to cherish and build upon their common past. This is what would truly do justice to the legacy of Simón Blolívar.

(This entry is an OpEd that I originally wrote for the defence news site defpro.com in November 2009)